Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture — check back closer to kickoff.
Form, fitness, fine margins. Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
Hammarby FF (2nd, 62 pts) are firmly in the top six and host a Degerfors IF side (13th, 30 pts) languishing in the bottom half. On paper, this looks comfortable.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Hammarby FF will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Degerfors IF travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Hammarby FF at just 0%. With the draw at 0%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Hammarby FF, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe. Our most likely scoreline: 1-1.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Hammarby FF will be looking to make home advantage count (W12 D1 L2 at home). Degerfors IF's away record reads W7 D1 L7. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. One thing to keep in mind about Hammarby FF. They're scoring 2.0 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.8. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.5) — that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Hammarby FF create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.7 a game on the balance. Degerfors IF create 1.2 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of -0.1. The underlying numbers clearly favour Hammarby FF. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Hammarby FF are scoring 2.0 goals a game off chances worth just 1.8. That's +0.5 more than the chances suggest — finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Hammarby FF average 2.0 goals per game and Degerfors IF manage 1.1. Combined that's just 3.1. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF together create chances worth 3.0 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Hammarby FF are all-out attack — 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 1.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Degerfors IF, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Hammarby FF Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Degerfors IF Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up — check back closer to kick-off.
Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF kicks off on Sunday 19 July 2026 at 15:30 in the Allsvenskan.