Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Fluminense (5th, 64 pts) are firmly in the top six and host a Vasco da Gama side (14th, 45 pts) languishing in the bottom half. On paper, this looks comfortable.
Fluminense's home record this season is formidable. W15 D1 L3 from 19, scoring 1.6 goals per game at home. Vasco da Gama, by contrast, have struggled on the road (W5 D2 L12 from 19 away). That imbalance is hard to ignore.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Fluminense create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 0.8), leaving them +0.6 a game on the balance. Vasco da Gama create 1.0 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.5. The underlying numbers clearly favour Fluminense. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
Fluminense average 1.3 goals per game and Vasco da Gama manage 1.4. Combined that's just 2.7. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
In the last 10 meetings: Fluminense have won 4, Vasco da Gama 4, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 2.4 goals per game. 5 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Fluminense 1-3 Vasco da Gama, Vasco da Gama 0-0 Fluminense, Vasco da Gama 3-2 Fluminense.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Fluminense Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Vasco da Gama Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 01:00 in the Brasileirão Série A.