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Benfica know what's at stake, and so do Heart of Midlothian.
A Europa League fixture between Benfica and Heart of Midlothian. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Benfica will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Heart of Midlothian travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickBenfica to win at @1.18. Model probability 67% vs implied 85%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
This league is new to our model. We have not yet built a verified record here, so treat this as an early read while we track it.
Both sides are prolific in front of goal. Benfica average 2.3 per game and Heart of Midlothian chip in with 2.0. Expect an open, attacking contest.
Goals look likely here. Benfica average 2.3 per game (2.3 at home) and Heart of Midlothian chip in with 2.0 (2.0 away). Defensively, Benfica concede 1.1 at home and Heart of Midlothian leak 1.3 on the road. We make it 69% for three or more goals. One of the stronger cases for goals today. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 46%. Two or more goals at @1.08 is a steadier alternative for accas.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Benfica are all-out attack: 2.3 goals a game, but they leak 1.1 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Heart of Midlothian, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Heart of Midlothian have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.3 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. Neither defence inspires confidence. Both sides rarely keep clean sheets. Open, attacking football is on the cards.
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9%) and 3-1 (5%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Benfica Win | @1.18 | 67.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @6.00 | 16.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Heart of Midlothian Win | @11.00 | 16.3% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.80 | 46.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.91 | 53.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.40 | 68.8% | BetVictor |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.88 | 31.2% | BetVictor |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.08 | - | BetVictor |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @7.00 | - | BetVictor |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @1.97 | - | BetVictor |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.79 | - | BetVictor |
The bookmakers make Benfica the favourite here. This league is new to our model, so we show the odds and an early read rather than a rated pick until we have built a verified record.
Best available odds: Benfica @ 1.18, Draw @ 6.00, Heart of Midlothian @ 11.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Benfica vs Heart of Midlothian kicks off on Thursday 6 August 2026 at 20:00 in the Europa League.