Alaves vs Osasuna Predictions & Odds
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Alaves have won three of their last five; Osasuna have lost five in a row. The momentum is with the hosts going into this La Liga tie.
One thing to keep in mind about Alaves. They're scoring 1.5 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.4. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.4), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play. A concern for Osasuna: they're giving up chances worth 1.4 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.1 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Alaves create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.4 a game on the balance. Osasuna create 1.3 (giving up 1.1) for a balance of +0.3. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Alaves are scoring 1.5 goals a game off chances worth just 1.4. That's +0.4 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off. Osasuna's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.4 a game over their last 5 vs 1.1 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Alaves average 1.5 goals per game and Osasuna manage 1.2. Combined that's just 2.7. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams score in 74% of Alaves's home games and 37% of Osasuna's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
In the last 10 meetings: Alaves have won 3, Osasuna 4, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 2.6 goals per game. 5 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Alaves 2-2 Osasuna, Osasuna 3-0 Alaves, Alaves 1-1 Osasuna, Osasuna 2-2 Alaves.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%) and 1-0 (10%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Alaves Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Osasuna Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Alaves vs Osasuna kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 17:30 in the La Liga.