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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42.2% | 59.9% | 18 pts under |
| Cardiff City Win | 35.0% | 45.5% | 10 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
The key duel: Wrexham AFC's attack against Cardiff City's back line.
There's barely anything between these two. Cardiff City (1st, 0 pts) and Wrexham AFC (1st, 0 pts) meet in a fixture that could shape the Championship table.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Cardiff City will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Wrexham AFC travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Wrexham AFC at just 39%. With the draw at 26%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Wrexham AFC, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Cardiff City are scoring 2.4 a game (2.4 of those at home) and Wrexham AFC manage 1.2 (1.2 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 42%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Both teams scoring looks unlikely (just 29%). Cardiff City shut the door in 37% of their games and Wrexham AFC draw a blank in 13% of theirs, so don't be surprised if one side keeps it tight at the back.
Both teams score in 48% of Cardiff City's home games and 57% of Wrexham AFC's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Matches involving Cardiff City always carry an extra edge. When you're challenging at the top, every fixture is scrutinised, every dropped point analysed. Wrexham AFC will know they need to be at their best to get a result here.
This has title race implications written all over it. Cardiff City sit 1st while Wrexham AFC are 1st. Three points here could prove decisive come May.
Cardiff City are all-out attack: 2.4 goals a game, but they leak 1.3 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Wrexham AFC, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (9%) and 2-0 (8%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Cardiff City Win | @2.38 | 35.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.30 | 25.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Wrexham AFC Win | @2.80 | 39.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.75 | 42.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.00 | 57.8% | William Hill |
Our model makes Wrexham AFC the favourite with a 39.2% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Cardiff City @ 2.38, Draw @ 3.30, Wrexham AFC @ 2.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Cardiff City vs Wrexham AFC kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 20:00 in the Championship.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.
Our top prediction is Wrexham AFC to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.