01The read
Neighbours Collide: Utrecht and AZ Alkmaar Separated by Fine Margins
The model makes AZ Alkmaar 47% favourites here. Utrecht carry the 27% upset.
There's barely anything between these two. Utrecht (6th, 53 pts) and AZ Alkmaar (7th, 52 pts) meet in a fixture that could shape the Eredivisie table.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.57. Model probability 61% vs implied 64%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 67% of AZ Alkmaar's matches this season
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 61% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Utrecht will be looking to make home advantage count (W11 D3 L4 at home). AZ Alkmaar's away record reads W6 D3 L8. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Utrecht's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Utrecht are scoring 1.6 a game (1.9 of those at home) and AZ Alkmaar manage 1.7 (1.1 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 61%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 58%.
▸ Team news & context
Both sides are in the hunt for a top-four finish. Utrecht (6th) and AZ Alkmaar (7th) know this is must-win territory. A defeat here would be a real blow to their European hopes.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Utrecht HT
3.00
-
Draw HT
2.38
-
AZ Alkmaar HT
2.80
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Utrecht Win |
@2.62
|
26.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.50
|
24.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
AZ Alkmaar Win |
@2.30
|
46.5% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.44
|
58.0% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.50
|
42.0% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.57
|
61.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.45
|
39.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.17
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@5.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.38
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.57
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar Team Stats
Utrecht
Position
6
Played
36
Record
16W-8D-12L
Goals F/A
59/46
Avg Goals Scored
1.60
Points
53
Overall Form
LDWWW
Home Form
WWW
Home Record
11W-3D-4L
AZ Alkmaar
Position
7
Played
34
Record
14W-10D-10L
Goals F/A
58/51
Avg Goals Scored
1.70
Points
52
Overall Form
WDDDD
Away Form
DD
Away Record
6W-3D-8L
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-2
8.3%
1-3
4.1%
2-3
3.2%
0-3
2.7%
1-4
1.5%
2-4
1.2%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Utrecht or AZ Alkmaar (double chance)
82%
@1.29
William Hill
-
Under 12.5 corners
Smart
81%
@1.29
1xBet
-
Troy Parrott 1+ shots on target
80%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Bendeguz Kovacs 1+ shots on target
74%
@1.36
Bet365
-
Isak Jensen 1+ shots on target
74%
@1.36
Bet365
Combined 3.85
· £5 returns
£19.24
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Bendeguz Kovacs 2+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Isak Jensen 2+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
AZ Alkmaar under 2.5 goals
84%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Utrecht over 0.5 goals
83%
@1.25
Betano
-
Under 2 first half goals
83%
@1.21
Marathon Bet
-
Utrecht or AZ Alkmaar (double chance)
82%
@1.29
William Hill
-
Over 2 goals
81%
@1.23
Marathon Bet
-
Under 12.5 corners
81%
@1.29
1xBet
-
Under 4 goals
81%
@1.24
Marathon Bet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
80%
@1.31
Betano
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
80%
@1.32
Betano
-
Troy Parrott 1+ shots on target
80%
@1.25
Bet365
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