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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 51.5% | 61.7% | 10 pts under |
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas Win | 34.6% | 44.4% | 10 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53.4% | 57.1% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
The key duel: CF Pachuca's attack against U.N.A.M. - Pumas's back line.
A Liga MX fixture between U.N.A.M. - Pumas and CF Pachuca. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. U.N.A.M. - Pumas will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while CF Pachuca travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: CF Pachuca at just 38%. With the draw at 27%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for CF Pachuca, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
The goals side is finely balanced. We make it 53% for three or more. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | U.N.A.M. - Pumas Win | @2.25 | 34.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 27.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | CF Pachuca Win | @2.75 | 37.9% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.62 | 51.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.15 | 48.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.80 | 53.4% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.05 | 46.6% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.80 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.42 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes CF Pachuca the favourite with a 37.9% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: U.N.A.M. - Pumas @ 2.25, Draw @ 3.10, CF Pachuca @ 2.75. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs CF Pachuca kicks off on Sunday 19 July 2026 at 00:00 in the Liga MX.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 51.5% probability.
Our top prediction is CF Pachuca to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.