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Three points on the line and a story to write. CF Estrela host Sporting Lisbon.
CF Estrela take on Sporting Lisbon in the Primeira Liga. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. CF Estrela will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Sporting Lisbon travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickSporting Lisbon to win at @1.22. Model probability 70% vs implied 82%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. CF Estrela average 0.8 goals per game and Sporting Lisbon manage 0.0. Combined that's just 0.8. We make it only 66% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Sporting Lisbon prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for CF Estrela against this setup.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | CF Estrela Win | @11.00 | 13.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @6.00 | 16.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Sporting Lisbon Win | @1.22 | 69.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.44 | 65.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.50 | 34.5% | William Hill |
Our model makes Sporting Lisbon the favourite with a 69.6% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: CF Estrela @ 11.00, Draw @ 6.00, Sporting Lisbon @ 1.22. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
CF Estrela vs Sporting Lisbon kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 20:30 in the Primeira Liga.