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Too close to call on the numbers. Puebla 41%, Santos Laguna 43%, the draw live at 25%.
Puebla have taken 7 points from their last five; Santos Laguna have lost three of their last five. Form gives little away going into this Liga MX tie.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Puebla are scoring 1.4 a game (1.4 of those at home) and Santos Laguna manage 1.2 (1.2 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 60%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 57%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Puebla Win | @2.10 | 41.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.30 | 25.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Santos Laguna Win | @2.80 | 43.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.55 | 56.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.25 | 43.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.67 | 59.6% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.25 | 40.4% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.60 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.50 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Combined 3.78 · £5 returns £18.88
Our model makes Santos Laguna the favourite with a 43.1% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Puebla @ 2.10, Draw @ 3.30, Santos Laguna @ 2.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Puebla vs Santos Laguna kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 02:00 in the Liga MX.