Get the model's verified verdict on Orgryte IS (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
Three points on the line and a story to write. Orgryte IS host AIK Stockholm.
A Allsvenskan fixture between Orgryte IS and AIK Stockholm. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Orgryte IS will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while AIK Stockholm travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.60. Model probability 64% vs implied 63%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Orgryte IS will be looking to make home advantage count (W1 D0 L0 at home). AIK Stockholm's away record reads W6 D3 L6. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Orgryte IS's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. One thing to keep in mind about Orgryte IS. They're scoring 1.5 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.2. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+1.8), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play. A concern for AIK Stockholm: they're giving up chances worth 1.7 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.4 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Orgryte IS create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 2.6), leaving them -1.4 a game on the balance. AIK Stockholm create 1.4 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of 0.0. On the quality of chances, AIK Stockholm look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Orgryte IS are scoring 1.5 goals a game off chances worth just 1.2. That's +1.8 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off. AIK Stockholm's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.7 a game over their last 5 vs 1.4 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Orgryte IS are scoring 1.5 a game (3.0 of those at home) and AIK Stockholm manage 1.3 (1.1 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 64%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 57%.
Both sides keep clean sheets regularly. This could be a tight, low-block affair where the first goal is decisive.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Orgryte IS Win | @3.20 | 23.9% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.60 | 25.4% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | AIK Stockholm Win | @2.00 | 48.6% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.53 | 56.8% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @2.45 | 43.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.60 | 63.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.32 | 36.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.18 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.64 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.55 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes AIK Stockholm the favourite with a 48.6% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Orgryte IS @ 3.20, Draw @ 3.60, AIK Stockholm @ 2.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 14:00 in the Allsvenskan.