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U.N.A.M. - Pumas 45%, the draw 26%, Necaxa 28%. That's the shape of this one.
The bookmakers open U.N.A.M. - Pumas at @1.91 for this Liga MX tie, with Necaxa out at @3.40.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas average 0.0 goals per game and Necaxa manage 1.4. Combined that's just 1.4. Even so, we make it 55% for three or more. The model sees more goals here than the season averages suggest. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 54%.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Neither defence inspires confidence. Both sides rarely keep clean sheets. Open, attacking football is on the cards.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | U.N.A.M. - Pumas Win | @1.91 | 45.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.20 | 26.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Necaxa Win | @3.40 | 28.3% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.62 | 53.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.10 | 46.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.75 | 55.4% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.12 | 44.6% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.44 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Combined 2.74 · £5 returns £13.72
Our model makes U.N.A.M. - Pumas the favourite with a 45.4% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: U.N.A.M. - Pumas @ 1.91, Draw @ 3.20, Necaxa @ 3.40. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Necaxa kicks off on Monday 24 August 2026 at 02:00 in the Liga MX.