01The read
Analysing Leon vs Monterrey: Who Wins?
The model makes Monterrey 44% favourites here. Leon carry the 29% upset.
Leon have lost three of their last five; Monterrey have won three of their last five. Form gives little away going into this Liga MX tie.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.70. Model probability 61% vs implied 59%. The market roughly agrees but our edge sits at 2pp.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 67% of Leon's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 61% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals look likely here. Leon average 1.3 per game (1.3 at home) and Monterrey chip in with 2.3 (2.3 away). Defensively, Leon concede 2.0 at home and Monterrey leak 1.5 on the road. We make it 61% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 58%.
▸ Team news & context
Monterrey have goals in them (2.3 per game) but their record at the back (1.5 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Leon HT
3.10
-
Draw HT
2.25
-
Monterrey HT
2.70
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Leon vs Monterrey Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Leon Win |
@2.80
|
29.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.20
|
27.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Monterrey Win |
@2.20
|
43.7% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.57
|
57.6% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.25
|
42.4% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.70
|
61.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.30
|
38.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.22
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.75
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.62
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-2
9.2%
1-3
6.7%
2-2
6.5%
2-1
6.0%
0-3
4.7%
2-3
4.7%
1-4
3.6%
3-2
3.1%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Under 3.5 goals
71%
@1.50
Unibet
-
Diber Cambindo 1+ shots on target
83%
@1.20
Bet365
-
Monterrey under 6.5 corners
Smart
83%
@1.20
Unibet
-
Hugo Cuypers 1+ shots on target
82%
@1.22
Bet365
-
Lucas Ocampos 1+ shots on target
82%
@1.22
Bet365
Combined 3.21
· £5 returns
£16.07
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Monterrey under 2.5 goals
85%
@1.23
Unibet
-
Luis Valadez 1+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Iker Fimbres 1+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Under 4 goals
85%
@1.27
Unibet
-
Leon under 2 goals
84%
@1.19
Marathon Bet
-
Diber Cambindo 1+ shots on target
83%
@1.20
Bet365
-
Monterrey under 6.5 corners
83%
@1.20
Unibet
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
83%
@1.28
Unibet
-
Leon or Monterrey (double chance)
82%
@1.30
William Hill
-
Hugo Cuypers 1+ shots on target
82%
@1.22
Bet365
-
Under 11.5 corners
82%
@1.32
Unibet
-
Leon over 0.5 goals
81%
@1.29
Betano
Build a slip from these markets →