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The key duel: HNK Rijeka's attack against Ilves's back line.
A Europa Conference League fixture between Ilves and HNK Rijeka. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Ilves will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while HNK Rijeka travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickHNK Rijeka to win at @1.54. Model probability 57% vs implied 65%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Ilves's home record this season is formidable. W1 D0 L0 from 1, scoring 4.0 goals per game at home. HNK Rijeka, by contrast, have struggled on the road (W1 D3 L1 from 5 away). That imbalance is hard to ignore.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Ilves are scoring 2.0 a game (4.0 of those at home) and HNK Rijeka manage 1.1 (0.6 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 54%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 47%.
Ilves are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 4.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at HNK Rijeka, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. HNK Rijeka prefer to keep things tight (0.6 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Ilves against this setup.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Ilves Win | @6.67 | 15.8% | 1xBet |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.14 | 27.0% | 1xBet |
| Match Result | HNK Rijeka Win | @1.54 | 57.2% | 1xBet |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.78 | 46.8% | Betano |
| BTTS | No | @1.93 | 53.2% | Betano |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.72 | 54.2% | Betano |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.10 | 45.8% | Betano |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.23 | - | Betano |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.85 | - | Betano |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.67 | - | Betano |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.44 | - | Betano |
Our model makes HNK Rijeka the favourite with a 57.2% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Ilves @ 6.67, Draw @ 4.14, HNK Rijeka @ 1.54. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Ilves vs HNK Rijeka kicks off on Thursday 13 August 2026 at 17:00 in the Europa Conference League.