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The key duel: Sirius's attack against IF Brommapojkarna's back line.
There's barely anything between these two. Sirius (9th, 39 pts) and IF Brommapojkarna (12th, 31 pts) meet in a fixture that could shape the Allsvenskan table.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Sirius will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while IF Brommapojkarna travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickSirius to win at @1.29. Model probability 67% vs implied 78%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Sirius supporters have every reason to fancy this one. Their side is flying. 4 wins on the bounce. That W-W-W-W-D run is the kind of form you dream about heading into a game like this. It's been tougher going for IF Brommapojkarna lately (L-D-L-L-D), recent form reads L-D-L-L-D. but their fans know football rarely reads the script. One good start, one moment of quality, and IF Brommapojkarna are right back in it. On paper it's Sirius's to lose, and that pressure cuts both ways. Sirius's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. Sirius have been even sharper lately. The chances they create are worth 2.6 a game over their last 5 compared to a season average of 2.3. They're creating more as the season goes on.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Sirius create chances worth 2.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them +1.1 a game on the balance. IF Brommapojkarna create 1.0 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of -0.4. The underlying numbers clearly favour Sirius. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Sirius are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 2.6 a game over the last 5 vs 2.3 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Sirius are scoring 1.8 a game (1.9 of those at home) and IF Brommapojkarna manage 1.3 (1.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 70%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 53%. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Sirius create chances worth 2.3 a game and IF Brommapojkarna 1.0. Combined, that's 3.3 a game from open play alone.
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
Sirius are all-out attack: 1.8 goals a game, but they leak 1.7 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at IF Brommapojkarna, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Sirius Win | @1.29 | 67.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @5.50 | 18.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | IF Brommapojkarna Win | @8.00 | 12.9% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.60 | 53.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.25 | 46.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.36 | 69.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @3.10 | 30.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @7.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @1.91 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.87 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Sirius the favourite with a 67.0% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Sirius @ 1.29, Draw @ 5.50, IF Brommapojkarna @ 8.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna kicks off on Monday 10 August 2026 at 18:00 in the Allsvenskan.