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Tough night ahead for Heerenveen. Twente arrive as the bookies' favourite.
A Eredivisie meeting between Heerenveen (8th, 51 pts) and Twente (4th, 58 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Heerenveen will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Twente travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickBoth teams to score at @1.44. Model probability 68% vs implied 69%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Heerenveen will be looking to make home advantage count (W8 D6 L3 at home). Twente's away record reads W6 D8 L3. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Heerenveen are scoring 1.7 a game (1.9 of those at home) and Twente manage 1.7 (1.8 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 66%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 68%. Heerenveen score in 77% of their games and Twente in 82%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Heerenveen Win | @3.00 | 25.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.60 | 24.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Twente Win | @2.10 | 47.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.44 | 68.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.62 | 31.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.48 | 65.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.75 | 34.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.12 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @6.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.72 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Twente the favourite with a 47.4% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Heerenveen @ 3.00, Draw @ 3.60, Twente @ 2.10. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Heerenveen vs Twente kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 15:45 in the Eredivisie.