Player Form
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
P
P. Abraham
1+ Shots on Target
77% (model)
P. Abraham averages 1.35 SoT/match (17 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
N
N. Besara
1+ Shots on Target
76% (model)
N. Besara averages 1.31 SoT/match (16 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
M
M. Madjed
1+ Shots on Target
76% (model)
M. Madjed averages 1.29 SoT/match (17 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
V
V. Lind
1+ Shots on Target
73% (model)
V. Lind averages 1.18 SoT/match (17 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
R
R. Þorkelsson
1+ Shots on Target
57% (model)
R. Þorkelsson averages 0.94 SoT/match (16 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Title Showdown: Hammarby FF vs Gais in Blockbuster Clash
Hammarby FF 60%, the draw 21%, Gais 15%. That's the shape of this one.
There's barely anything between these two. Hammarby FF (2nd, 62 pts) and Gais (3rd, 52 pts) meet in a fixture that could shape the Allsvenskan table.
P. Abraham has been Hammarby FF's spearhead, with 10 goals and 3 assists in 17 appearances, averaging 1.35 shots on target per game. S. Salter has been Gais's main threat, with 5 goals and 2 assists in 16 appearances, averaging 0.94 shots on target per game.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickHammarby FF to win at @1.44. Model probability 60% vs implied 69%. The market is 9pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key men
P
P. Abraham
Hammarby FF · Attacker
10 goals · 3 assists in 17 apps
1.4 shots on target a game
S
S. Salter
Gais · Attacker
5 goals · 2 assists in 16 apps
0.9 shots on target a game
Key facts
🏟
Home Fortress
Hammarby FF have won 12 of 15 at home (80%). They rarely slip up on their own patch
🧤
Defensive Wall
Hammarby FF keep clean sheets in 47% of games. One of the tightest defences around
📉
Due a Correction
Hammarby FF scoring +0.5 more than their chances suggest while Gais are scoring fewer than theirs by -0.3. Expect this gap to narrow
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 64% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Hammarby FF will be looking to make home advantage count (W12 D1 L2 at home). Gais's away record reads W6 D6 L3. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. One thing to keep in mind about Hammarby FF. They're scoring 2.0 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.8. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.5), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play. Gais are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 1.9 against 1.5 actual goals). They look due a few more.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Hammarby FF create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.7 a game on the balance. Gais create 1.9 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of +0.6. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Hammarby FF are scoring 2.0 goals a game off chances worth just 1.8. That's +0.5 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off. Gais are creating chances worth 1.9 a game but only finishing 1.5. the underlying performance is better than the results show.
Goals look likely here. Hammarby FF average 2.0 per game (2.3 at home) and Gais chip in with 1.5 (1.5 away). Defensively, Hammarby FF concede 0.7 at home and Gais leak 1.1 on the road. We make it 64% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 51%. Two or more goals at @1.17 is a steadier alternative for accas. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Hammarby FF create chances worth 1.8 a game and Gais 1.9. Combined, that's 3.7 a game from open play alone.
▸ Team news & context
The stakes are high for Hammarby FF at this stage of the season. Their fans will expect a performance, and the home support will be vocal in driving them on. Gais face a tough afternoon.
This has title race implications written all over it. Hammarby FF sit 2nd while Gais are 3rd. Three points here could prove decisive come May.
Hammarby FF are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 1.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Gais, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9%) and 3-1 (5%).
First Half Result
-
Hammarby FF HT
1.91
-
Draw HT
2.45
-
Gais HT
5.50
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Hammarby FF · xG
For: 1.84/g
Against: 1.14/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.46/g, possibly running hot
📊 Gais · xG
For: 1.88/g
Against: 1.28/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.32/g, value possible
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Hammarby FF vs Gais Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Hammarby FF Win |
@1.44
|
60.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@4.40
|
21.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Gais Win |
@6.00
|
14.7% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.70
|
51.1% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.05
|
48.9% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.57
|
64.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.43
|
35.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.17
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@5.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.38
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.58
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Hammarby FF vs Gais Team Stats
Hammarby FF
Position
2
Played
30
Record
19W-5D-6L
Goals F/A
60/29
Avg Goals Scored
2.00
Points
62
Home Record
12W-1D-2L
Gais
Position
3
Played
30
Record
14W-10D-6L
Goals F/A
45/30
Avg Goals Scored
1.50
Points
52
Overall Form
LWDLW
Away Form
WLDLW
Away Record
6W-6D-3L
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
9.0%
3-1
4.5%
3-0
3.6%
3-2
2.8%
4-1
1.7%
4-0
1.3%
4-2
1.1%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 13.5 corners
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Over 2 goals
84%
@1.21
Marathon Bet
-
Under 2 first half goals
83%
@1.24
Unibet
-
Over 7.5 corners
83%
@1.21
Unibet
-
Gais under 1.5 goals
82%
@1.26
Betano
-
Over 1 second half goals
81%
@1.24
Marathon Bet
-
Hammarby FF under 3 goals
81%
@1.24
Marathon Bet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
80%
@1.31
Betano
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
80%
@1.33
Betano
-
Under 4 goals
80%
@1.30
Unibet
-
Hammarby FF over 4.5 corners
78%
@1.28
Unibet
-
Hammarby FF under 8.5 corners
77%
@1.30
Unibet
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