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A test of nerve as much as quality when Ham-Kam welcome Aalesund.
A Eliteserien fixture between Ham-Kam and Aalesund. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Ham-Kam will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Aalesund travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickBoth teams to score at @1.50. Model probability 67% vs implied 67%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Aalesund have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Ham-Kam create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them +0.2 a game on the balance. Aalesund create 0.8 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of -0.8. The underlying numbers clearly favour Ham-Kam. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Ham-Kam average 0.0 goals per game and Aalesund manage 2.0. Combined that's just 2.0. We make it only 64% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 67%. Ham-Kam score in 100% of their games and Aalesund in 50%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet. A word of caution on the chances: even though the goals numbers point up, the combined chance quality is only worth 2.2 a game. These sides aren't creating as much as their goal tallies suggest. Hot finishing has flattered the numbers.
Ham-Kam do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Aalesund are similarly well-balanced. 2.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Ham-Kam Win | @2.10 | 42.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.50 | 22.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Aalesund Win | @3.00 | 37.3% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.50 | 67.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.45 | 32.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.53 | 63.9% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.55 | 36.1% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.14 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @5.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.62 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Ham-Kam the favourite with a 42.6% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Ham-Kam @ 2.10, Draw @ 3.50, Aalesund @ 3.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Ham-Kam vs Aalesund kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 16:00 in the Eliteserien.