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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe Win | 64.8% | 76.9% | 12 pts under |
| Both Teams to Score | 44.5% | 53.5% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58.2% | 61.3% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
The key duel: Fenerbahçe's attack against Sturm Graz's back line.
Fenerbahçe take on Sturm Graz in the Champions League. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Fenerbahçe will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Sturm Graz travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Fenerbahçe shade it at 65%, though Sturm Graz won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing Fenerbahçe with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option.
Our PickFenerbahçe to win at @1.36. Model probability 65% vs implied 74%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
The bookmakers have Fenerbahçe as clear favourites for this Champions League clash, pricing them at @1.36 which implies a 65% win probability. Sturm Graz come in at @7.50 (15%) with the draw at @4.40 (20%). The odds suggest this should be straightforward for the hosts, though no result in the lower leagues is ever guaranteed.
It's a coin-flip whether we see three or more, and we make it 58%. Neither a high-scoring game nor a tight one is much more likely than the other. For something steadier, two or more goals at @1.20 is the more conservative option.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Fenerbahçe Win | @1.36 | 64.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.40 | 20.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Sturm Graz Win | @7.50 | 15.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.91 | 44.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.83 | 55.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.65 | 58.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.22 | 41.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.50 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Fenerbahçe the favourite with a 64.8% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Fenerbahçe @ 1.36, Draw @ 4.40, Sturm Graz @ 7.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz kicks off on Wednesday 5 August 2026 at 19:00 in the Champions League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 44.5% probability.
Our top prediction is Fenerbahçe to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.