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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 26.5% | 33.9% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43.8% | 45.9% | 2 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Deportivo La Coruña welcome Elche CF.
Deportivo La Coruña welcome Elche CF in the La Liga. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Deportivo La Coruña will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Elche CF travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Deportivo La Coruña edge it at 43% but a draw (27%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Deportivo La Coruña are the marginal favourites at 43%, but this isn't a one-sided affair. Elche CF will fancy their chances and the draw at 27% can't be ruled out. Expect a competitive contest. The margins between these two are slim.
It's a coin-flip whether we see three or more, and we make it 44%. Neither a high-scoring game nor a tight one is much more likely than the other.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Deportivo La Coruña Win | @2.25 | 42.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 26.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Elche CF Win | @3.25 | 30.7% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.25 | 43.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.62 | 56.2% | William Hill |
Our model makes Deportivo La Coruña the favourite with a 42.8% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Deportivo La Coruña @ 2.25, Draw @ 3.10, Elche CF @ 3.25. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Deportivo La Coruña vs Elche CF kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 20:00 in the La Liga.
Our top prediction is Deportivo La Coruña to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.