03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Both Teams to Score |
44.2% |
53.2% |
9 pts under
|
| Draw |
27.2% |
35.1% |
8 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
39.4% |
45.9% |
6 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Deportivo La Coruna vs Elche: Can the Hosts Deliver?
The model makes Deportivo La Coruna 48% favourites here. Elche carry the 39% upset.
Deportivo La Coruna slight edge (48%) | Lower-scoring game likely (61%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
The bookmakers open Deportivo La Coruna at @2.38 for this La Liga tie, with Elche out at @3.20.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Deportivo La Coruna at 48%, but the draw sits at 27%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
Our model spots value here: Elche to win at @3.20 (our model: 39%, bookmakers imply: 31%). A 8% edge over the market.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 71% of Elche's matches this season
▸ Form & goals
Deportivo La Coruna average 0.0 goals per game and Elche manage 1.3. Combined that's just 1.3. We make it only 39% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 44%.
▸ Team news & context
Deportivo La Coruna do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
If you like Deportivo La Coruna but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.36 , which pays out if Deportivo La Coruna win or draw, covers 75% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (19%) and 2-0 (7%).
First Half Result
-
Deportivo La Coruna HT
2.80
-
Draw HT
2.05
-
Elche HT
3.80
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Elche · xG
For: 1.01/g
Against: 1.28/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Elche Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Deportivo La Coruna Win |
@2.38
|
47.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@2.90
|
27.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Elche Win |
@3.20
|
39.2% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.95
|
44.2% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.83
|
55.8% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.30
|
39.4% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.66
|
60.6% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@4.33
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.24
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Deportivo La Coruna vs Elche Team Stats
Deportivo La Coruna
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Elche CF
Position
13
Played
38
Record
10W-13D-15L
Goals F/A
49/57
Avg Goals Scored
1.29
Points
43
Overall Form
DWLDL
Away Form
DLLW
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
18.6%
2-0
7.0%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Under 3.5 goals
Smart
85%
@1.24
Betano
-
Over 6.5 corners
Smart
85%
@1.25
Unibet
-
Over 2.5 cards
85%
@1.18
Betano
-
Yeremay Hernandez 1+ shots on target
77%
@1.30
Bet365
-
Bil Nsongo 1+ shots on target
69%
@1.44
Bet365
Combined 3.42
· £5 returns
£17.12
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 3.5 goals
85%
@1.24
Betano
-
Lucas Cepeda 2+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Tete Morente 1+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Under 2 second half goals
85%
@1.18
Marathon Bet
-
Over 6.5 corners
85%
@1.25
Unibet
-
Over 2.5 cards
85%
@1.18
Betano
-
Elche under 5.5 corners
83%
@1.25
Unibet
-
Under 11 corners
83%
@1.20
1xBet
-
Deportivo La Coruna under 6.5 corners
83%
@1.28
Betano
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
79%
@1.33
William Hill
-
Under 3 goals
78%
@1.33
Betano
-
Under 6.5 cards
78%
@1.41
Unibet
Build a slip from these markets →