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Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
The key duel: Malmo FF's attack against Degerfors IF's back line.
Malmo FF (6th, 49 pts) are firmly in the top six and host a Degerfors IF side (13th, 30 pts) languishing in the bottom half. On paper, this looks comfortable.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Malmo FF will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Degerfors IF travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickMalmo FF to win at @1.50. Model probability 60% vs implied 67%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Malmo FF supporters have every reason to fancy this one. Their side is flying. recent form reads W-L-D-W-W. That W-L-D-W-W run is the kind of form you dream about heading into a game like this. It's been tougher going for Degerfors IF lately (L-L-L-L-L), 5 losses in a row. but their fans know football rarely reads the script. One good start, one moment of quality, and Degerfors IF are right back in it. On paper it's Malmo FF's to lose, and that pressure cuts both ways.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Malmo FF create chances worth 1.6 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.2 a game on the balance. Degerfors IF create 1.2 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of -0.1. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Malmo FF are scoring 1.5 a game (1.5 of those at home) and Degerfors IF manage 1.1 (1.7 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 63%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 50%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Malmo FF Win | @1.50 | 59.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.00 | 22.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Degerfors IF Win | @5.50 | 14.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.73 | 49.9% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.00 | 50.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.62 | 62.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.25 | 37.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.18 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.50 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Malmo FF the favourite with a 59.6% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Malmo FF @ 1.50, Draw @ 4.00, Degerfors IF @ 5.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 13:00 in the Allsvenskan.