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A test of nerve as much as quality when Hammarby FF welcome BK Hacken.
A Allsvenskan meeting between Hammarby FF (2nd, 62 pts) and BK Hacken (10th, 35 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.
P. Abraham has been Hammarby FF's spearhead, with 8 goals and 3 assists in 15 appearances, averaging 1.33 shots on target per game. G. Lindgren has been BK Hacken's main threat, with 7 goals and 0 assists in 15 appearances, averaging 1.07 shots on target per game.
Our PickHammarby FF to win at @1.50. Model probability 58% vs implied 67%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Hammarby FF will be looking to make home advantage count (W12 D1 L2 at home). BK Hacken's away record reads W5 D4 L6. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. One thing to keep in mind about Hammarby FF. They're scoring 2.0 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.8. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.5), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play. BK Hacken are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 2.1 against 1.4 actual goals). They look due a few more.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Hammarby FF create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.7 a game on the balance. BK Hacken create 2.1 (giving up 1.9) for a balance of +0.2. The underlying numbers clearly favour Hammarby FF. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Hammarby FF are scoring 2.0 goals a game off chances worth just 1.8. That's +0.5 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off. BK Hacken are creating chances worth 2.1 a game but only finishing 1.4. the underlying performance is better than the results show.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Hammarby FF are scoring 2.0 a game (2.3 of those at home) and BK Hacken manage 1.4 (1.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 70%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 68%. Hammarby FF score in 93% of their games and BK Hacken in 70%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Hammarby FF create chances worth 1.8 a game and BK Hacken 2.1. Combined, that's 3.9 a game from open play alone.
Hammarby FF are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 1.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at BK Hacken, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Hammarby FF Win | @1.50 | 58.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.50 | 20.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | BK Hacken Win | @5.00 | 17.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.44 | 68.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.62 | 31.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.36 | 70.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @3.14 | 29.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @7.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @1.83 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.88 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Hammarby FF the favourite with a 58.4% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Hammarby FF @ 1.50, Draw @ 4.50, BK Hacken @ 5.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 13:00 in the Allsvenskan.