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A test of nerve as much as quality when Benfica welcome Heart of Midlothian.
Benfica welcome Heart of Midlothian in the Europa League. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Benfica will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Heart of Midlothian travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickBenfica to win at @1.11. Model probability 70% vs implied 90%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Goals look likely here. Benfica average 2.3 per game (2.3 at home) and Heart of Midlothian chip in with 1.9 (1.9 away). Defensively, Benfica concede 1.1 at home and Heart of Midlothian leak 1.3 on the road. We make it 76% for three or more goals. One of the stronger cases for goals today. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 42%. Two or more goals at @1.08 is a steadier alternative for accas. For bigger odds, four or more goals at @1.80 looks worth a look given these attacking numbers.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Benfica are all-out attack: 2.3 goals a game, but they leak 1.1 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Heart of Midlothian, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Heart of Midlothian have goals in them (1.9 per game) but their record at the back (1.3 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. Neither defence inspires confidence. Both sides rarely keep clean sheets. Open, attacking football is on the cards.
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9%) and 3-1 (5%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Benfica Win | @1.11 | 69.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @7.50 | 14.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Heart of Midlothian Win | @17.00 | 15.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @2.20 | 41.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.57 | 58.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.33 | 75.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @3.40 | 24.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.08 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @8.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @1.80 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @2.05 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Benfica the favourite with a 69.9% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Benfica @ 1.11, Draw @ 7.50, Heart of Midlothian @ 17.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Benfica vs Heart of Midlothian kicks off on Thursday 6 August 2026 at 20:00 in the Europa League.