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Form, fitness, fine margins. AZ Alkmaar and ADO Den Haag meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
AZ Alkmaar welcome ADO Den Haag in the Eredivisie. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. AZ Alkmaar will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while ADO Den Haag travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickAZ Alkmaar to win at @1.44. Model probability 62% vs implied 69%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. AZ Alkmaar average 1.7 goals per game and ADO Den Haag manage 0.0. Combined that's just 1.7. We make it only 68% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
ADO Den Haag prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for AZ Alkmaar against this setup.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | AZ Alkmaar Win | @1.44 | 62.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.33 | 21.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | ADO Den Haag Win | @5.80 | 14.3% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.62 | 51.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.15 | 48.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.50 | 67.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.60 | 32.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.14 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @5.60 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.67 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite with a 62.3% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: AZ Alkmaar @ 1.44, Draw @ 4.33, ADO Den Haag @ 5.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 20:00 in the Eredivisie.