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Cruz Azul 57%, the draw 23%, Atlas 20%. That's the shape of this one.
Cruz Azul have lost their last two; Atlas have won three of their last five. Form gives little away going into this Liga MX tie.
Our PickCruz Azul to win at @1.44. Model probability 57% vs implied 69%. The market is 12pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Cruz Azul are scoring 2.0 a game (2.0 of those at home) and Atlas manage 1.1 (1.1 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 55%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 46%.
Cruz Azul are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 1.4 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Atlas, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Cruz Azul Win | @1.44 | 57.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.80 | 23.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Atlas Win | @5.50 | 19.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.83 | 46.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.85 | 53.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.75 | 54.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.12 | 45.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.45 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Combined 2.77 · £5 returns £13.83
Our model makes Cruz Azul the favourite with a 57.0% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Cruz Azul @ 1.44, Draw @ 3.80, Atlas @ 5.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Cruz Azul vs Atlas kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 04:00 in the Liga MX.