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A test of nerve as much as quality when FC Porto welcome Alverca.
FC Porto (1st, 88 pts) host Alverca (11th, 39 pts) in the Primeira Liga. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. FC Porto will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Alverca travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickFC Porto to win at @1.17. Model probability 71% vs implied 85%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
FC Porto's home record this season is formidable. W14 D3 L0 from 17, scoring 1.9 goals per game at home. Alverca, by contrast, have struggled on the road (W3 D4 L10 from 17 away). That imbalance is hard to ignore.
Goals are a tough one to call here. FC Porto are scoring 1.9 a game (1.9 of those at home) and Alverca manage 1.0 (1.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 66%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%.
FC Porto are in great shape right now, banging in 1.9 a game and only letting in 0.5. They're strong at both ends, so they tend to boss games and don't give much away at the back.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | FC Porto Win | @1.17 | 70.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @6.50 | 16.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Alverca Win | @15.00 | 11.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @2.30 | 45.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.57 | 55.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.57 | 65.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.45 | 34.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.17 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @5.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.38 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.61 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes FC Porto the favourite with a 70.7% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: FC Porto @ 1.17, Draw @ 6.50, Alverca @ 15.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
FC Porto vs Alverca kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 18:00 in the Primeira Liga.