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The model makes Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69% favourites here. Al-Fayha carry the 15% upset.
Al-Fayha have lost four in a row; Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won three straight. The visitors bring the sharper form into this Saudi Pro League tie.
Our PickAl-Hilal Saudi FC to win at @1.20. Model probability 69% vs implied 83%. The market is 15pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Al-Fayha are scoring 1.2 a game (1.2 of those at home) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC manage 2.0 (2.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 67%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are similarly well-balanced. 2.0 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Al-Fayha Win | @10.00 | 15.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @5.80 | 16.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win | @1.20 | 68.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.85 | 44.9% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.83 | 55.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.40 | 66.5% | 888Sport |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.70 | 33.5% | 888Sport |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.13 | - | 888Sport |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @5.50 | - | 888Sport |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.10 | - | 888Sport |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.72 | - | 888Sport |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite with a 68.6% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Al-Fayha @ 10.00, Draw @ 5.80, Al-Hilal Saudi FC @ 1.20. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 19:00 in the Saudi Pro League.