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Form, fitness, fine margins. PEC Zwolle and Ajax meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
Tricky away day for Ajax (5th, 56 pts) as they travel to PEC Zwolle (15th, 37 pts), but the visitors' league position tells you they should have more than enough here.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. PEC Zwolle will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Ajax travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickAjax to win at @1.44. Model probability 59% vs implied 69%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
PEC Zwolle will be looking to make home advantage count (W8 D4 L5 at home). Ajax's away record reads W5 D10 L2. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them.
Goals are a tough one to call here. PEC Zwolle are scoring 1.3 a game (1.2 of those at home) and Ajax manage 1.8 (1.8 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 66%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 55%.
Ajax have goals in them (1.8 per game) but their record at the back (1.2 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | PEC Zwolle Win | @5.50 | 15.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.20 | 23.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Ajax Win | @1.44 | 59.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.55 | 54.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.30 | 45.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.48 | 66.1% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.75 | 33.9% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.12 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @6.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.72 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Ajax the favourite with a 59.0% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: PEC Zwolle @ 5.50, Draw @ 4.20, Ajax @ 1.44. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
PEC Zwolle vs Ajax kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 13:30 in the Eredivisie.