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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus Win | 57.1% | 66.7% | 10 pts under |
| Both Teams to Score | 46.8% | 56.2% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51.9% | 57.8% | 6 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Aarhus welcome Sabah FA.
A Champions League fixture between Aarhus and Sabah FA. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Aarhus will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Sabah FA travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Aarhus shade it at 57%, though Sabah FA won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing Aarhus with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option.
Our PickAarhus to win at @1.57. Model probability 57% vs implied 64%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
The goals side is finely balanced. We make it 52% for three or more. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 47%.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
If you like Aarhus but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.15 , which pays out if Aarhus win or draw, covers 80% of the outcomes.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Aarhus Win | @1.57 | 57.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.75 | 23.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Sabah FA Win | @5.00 | 19.7% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.83 | 46.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.91 | 53.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.75 | 51.9% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.07 | 48.1% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.42 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Aarhus the favourite with a 57.1% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Aarhus @ 1.57, Draw @ 3.75, Sabah FA @ 5.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Aarhus vs Sabah FA kicks off on Wednesday 5 August 2026 at 17:30 in the Champions League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 46.8% probability.
Our top prediction is Aarhus to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.