Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Vasco DA Gama know what's at stake, and so do Mirassol.
Tricky away day for Mirassol (4th, 67 pts) as they travel to Vasco DA Gama (14th, 45 pts), but the visitors' league position tells you they should have more than enough here.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Vasco DA Gama will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Mirassol travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Vasco DA Gama at 0%, but the draw sits at 0%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Vasco DA Gama will be looking to make home advantage count (W8 D4 L7 at home). Mirassol's away record reads W6 D6 L7. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. A concern for Mirassol: they're giving up chances worth 1.6 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.2 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Vasco DA Gama create chances worth 1.0 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them -0.5 a game on the balance. Mirassol create 1.5 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of +0.3. On the quality of chances, Mirassol look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. A worry for Vasco DA Gama: the chances they're creating lately are worth 0.7 a game, well below their 1.0 season figure. The attacking output has dipped. Mirassol's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.6 a game over their last 5 vs 1.2 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Vasco DA Gama average 1.4 goals per game and Mirassol manage 1.7. Combined that's just 3.1. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Vasco DA Gama Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Mirassol Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 00:30 in the Brasileirão Série A.