Gremio vs Fluminense Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Three points on the line and a story to write. Gremio host Fluminense.
Gremio (9th, 49 pts) host Fluminense (5th, 64 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Gremio will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Fluminense travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Gremio edge it at 0% but a draw (0%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Gremio will be looking to make home advantage count (W9 D5 L5 at home). Fluminense's away record reads W4 D6 L9. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Gremio create chances worth 1.6 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. Fluminense create 1.4 (giving up 0.8) for a balance of +0.6. On the quality of chances, Fluminense look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Gremio average 1.2 goals per game and Fluminense manage 1.3. Combined that's just 2.5. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Gremio Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Fluminense Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Gremio vs Fluminense kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 22:30 in the Brasileirão Série A.