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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL Win | 60.4% | 73.5% | 13 pts under |
| Both Teams to Score | 49.0% | 58.8% | 10 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60.8% | 63.7% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Tigres UANL know what's at stake, and so do Atletico San Luis.
A Liga MX fixture between Tigres UANL and Atletico San Luis. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Tigres UANL will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Atletico San Luis travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
The data leans towards Tigres UANL (60%), but there's enough doubt to stay careful. Atletico San Luis have the tools to make this uncomfortable.
Our PickTigres UANL to win at @1.44. Model probability 60% vs implied 69%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
This league is new to our model. We have not yet built a verified record here, so treat this as an early read while we track it.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Tigres UANL average 1.8 goals per game and Atletico San Luis manage 0.0. Combined that's just 1.8. We make it only 61% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%.
Atletico San Luis prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Tigres UANL against this setup. Neither defence inspires confidence. Both sides rarely keep clean sheets. Open, attacking football is on the cards.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Tigres UANL Win | @1.44 | 60.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.00 | 22.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Atletico San Luis Win | @5.50 | 17.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.70 | 49.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.00 | 51.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.57 | 60.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.35 | 39.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.17 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @5.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.38 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.55 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Tigres UANL the favourite with a 60.4% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Tigres UANL @ 1.44, Draw @ 4.00, Atletico San Luis @ 5.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Tigres UANL vs Atletico San Luis kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 04:00 in the Liga MX.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 49.0% probability.
Our top prediction is Tigres UANL to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.