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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 42.8% | 51.5% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 40.1% | 46.7% | 7 pts under |
| Sao Paulo Win | 48.5% | 54.6% | 6 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
Three points on the line and a story to write. Sao Paulo host Atletico Paranaense.
Sao Paulo welcome Atletico Paranaense in the Brasileirão Série A. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Sao Paulo will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Atletico Paranaense travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Sao Paulo edge it at 49% but a draw (27%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Sao Paulo average 1.1 goals per game and Atletico Paranaense manage 0.0. Combined that's just 1.1. We make it only 40% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 43%.
Atletico Paranaense prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Sao Paulo against this setup.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Sao Paulo Win | @1.85 | 48.5% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.30 | 26.6% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Atletico Paranaense Win | @4.10 | 24.8% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.95 | 42.8% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @1.80 | 57.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.15 | 40.1% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.71 | 59.9% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.36 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @4.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.25 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture — our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Sao Paulo the favourite with a 48.5% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Sao Paulo @ 1.85, Draw @ 3.30, Atletico Paranaense @ 4.10. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 01:30 in the Brasileirão Série A.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 42.8% probability.
Our top prediction is Sao Paulo to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.