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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo Win | 58.9% | 68.0% | 9 pts under |
| Both Teams to Score | 44.2% | 53.2% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 52.3% | 55.9% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
All eyes on Chapecoense-sc as Flamengo travel to face Chapecoense-sc.
Chapecoense-sc take on Flamengo in the Brasileirão Série A. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Chapecoense-sc will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Flamengo travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
We lean towards Flamengo at 59%. The edge is there but not overwhelming, so a stake-back-on-a-draw option is worth a thought for an acca.
Our PickFlamengo to win at @1.50. Model probability 59% vs implied 67%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Chapecoense-sc average 0.0 goals per game and Flamengo manage 2.1. Combined that's just 2.1. We make it only 52% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 44%.
Chapecoense-sc do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Flamengo are similarly well-balanced. 2.1 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Chapecoense-sc Win | @6.00 | 16.5% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.00 | 24.6% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Flamengo Win | @1.50 | 58.9% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.91 | 44.2% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @1.91 | 55.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.80 | 52.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.03 | 47.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.40 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture — our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Flamengo the favourite with a 58.9% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Chapecoense-sc @ 6.00, Draw @ 4.00, Flamengo @ 1.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 01:30 in the Brasileirão Série A.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 44.2% probability.
Our top prediction is Flamengo to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.