New York City FC vs Chicago Fire Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Form, fitness, fine margins. New York City FC and Chicago Fire meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
New York City FC take on Chicago Fire in the MLS. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. New York City FC will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Chicago Fire travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. New York City FC edge it at 0% but a draw (0%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Chicago Fire are no pushovers away from home. W9 D2 L7 from 18 away trips, scoring 2.5 per game on the road. New York City FC (W11 D0 L7 at home) can't afford to take this lightly. Chicago Fire could be in for a similar cool-off. 2.0 goals a game against chance quality worth only 1.8. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
New York City FC create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Chicago Fire create 1.8 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of +0.5. On the quality of chances, Chicago Fire look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Chicago Fire are also scoring more than their chances suggest (2.0 goals vs chance quality of 1.8). Both runs could cool off at once.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. New York City FC average 1.4 goals per game and Chicago Fire manage 2.0. Combined that's just 3.4. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. New York City FC and Chicago Fire together create chances worth 3.1 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Chicago Fire have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.8 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | New York City FC Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Chicago Fire Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
New York City FC vs Chicago Fire kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 00:30 in the MLS.