DC United vs Toronto FC Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
Get the model's verified verdict on DC United (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
Three points on the line and a story to write. DC United host Toronto FC.
A MLS fixture between DC United and Toronto FC. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. DC United will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Toronto FC travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: DC United at just 0%. With the draw at 0%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for DC United, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
DC United will be looking to make home advantage count (W2 D7 L8 at home). Toronto FC's away record reads W3 D7 L7. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. A concern for Toronto FC: they're giving up chances worth 1.8 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.4 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
DC United create chances worth 1.1 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Toronto FC create 1.1 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of -0.4. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Toronto FC's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.8 a game over their last 5 vs 1.4 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. DC United average 0.9 goals per game and Toronto FC manage 1.1. Combined that's just 2.0. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | DC United Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Toronto FC Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
DC United vs Toronto FC kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 00:30 in the MLS.