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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 47.6% | 57.1% | 10 pts under |
| Ham-Kam Win | 23.8% | 32.1% | 8 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47.7% | 50.5% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Ham-Kam welcome Tromso.
A Eliteserien fixture between Ham-Kam and Tromso. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Ham-Kam will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Tromso travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Tromso at 47%, but the draw sits at 27%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Ham-Kam create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them 0.0 a game on the balance. Tromso create 2.1 (giving up 1.0) for a balance of +1.1. On the quality of chances, Tromso look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Ham-Kam average 0.0 goals per game and Tromso manage 1.7. Combined that's just 1.7. We make it only 48% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Ham-Kam do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Ham-Kam Win | @3.20 | 23.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 26.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Tromso Win | @2.15 | 47.3% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.85 | 47.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.85 | 52.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.05 | 47.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.78 | 52.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.35 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.29 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Tromso the favourite with a 47.3% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Ham-Kam @ 3.20, Draw @ 3.10, Tromso @ 2.15. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Ham-Kam vs Tromso kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 13:00 in the Eliteserien.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 47.6% probability.
Our top prediction is Tromso to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.