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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bodo/Glimt Win | 70.7% | 84.7% | 14 pts under |
| Both Teams to Score | 48.1% | 57.8% | 10 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 72.2% | 78.1% | 6 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Three points on the line and a story to write. Bodo/Glimt host Ham-Kam.
Bodo/Glimt welcome Ham-Kam in the Eliteserien. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
S. Fet has been Bodo/Glimt's spearhead, with 4 goals and 1 assists in 12 appearances, averaging 0.75 shots on target per game. Whoever leads Ham-Kam's line will have a job on against that profile.
Bodo/Glimt to win at 71%. Every metric we track (form, league position, home/away splits, the quality of chances) points the same way. About as clear as it gets today.
Our PickBodo/Glimt to win at @1.18. Model probability 71% vs implied 85%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
This league is new to our model. We have not yet built a verified record here, so treat this as an early read while we track it.
A concern for Ham-Kam: they're giving up chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.6 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Bodo/Glimt create chances worth 2.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +1.8 a game on the balance. Ham-Kam create 1.5 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of 0.0. The underlying numbers clearly favour Bodo/Glimt. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. A worry for Bodo/Glimt: the chances they're creating lately are worth 2.4 a game, well below their 2.9 season figure. The attacking output has dipped. Ham-Kam's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 vs 1.6 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Bodo/Glimt are scoring 2.5 a game (2.5 of those at home) and Ham-Kam manage 0.0 (0.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 72%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Bodo/Glimt create chances worth 2.9 a game and Ham-Kam 1.5. Combined, that's 4.4 a game from open play alone.
Bodo/Glimt are all-out attack: 2.5 goals a game, but they leak 0.9 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Ham-Kam, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Ham-Kam prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Bodo/Glimt against this setup.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Bodo/Glimt Win | @1.18 | 70.7% | Unibet |
| Match Result | Draw | @7.00 | 15.4% | Unibet |
| Match Result | Ham-Kam Win | @11.50 | 13.8% | Unibet |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.73 | 48.1% | Unibet |
| BTTS | No | @1.95 | 51.9% | Unibet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.28 | 72.2% | Unibet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @3.25 | 27.8% | Unibet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.07 | - | Unibet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @6.50 | - | Unibet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @1.72 | - | Unibet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.96 | - | Unibet |
Our model makes Bodo/Glimt the favourite with a 70.7% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Bodo/Glimt @ 1.18, Draw @ 7.00, Ham-Kam @ 11.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam kicks off on Wednesday 22 July 2026 at 18:00 in the Eliteserien.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 48.1% probability.
Our top prediction is Bodo/Glimt to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.