Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 47.3% | 56.8% | 10 pts under |
| Atletico-MG Win | 43.4% | 47.6% | 4 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47.7% | 50.5% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
Atletico-MG know what's at stake — and so do Bahia.
A Brasileirão Série A fixture between Atletico-MG and Bahia. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Atletico-MG will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Bahia travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Atletico-MG at just 43%. With the draw at 27%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Atletico-MG, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe. Our most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Bahia are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 1.8 against 1.3 actual goals). They look due a few more.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Atletico-MG create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them -0.3 a game on the balance. Bahia create 1.8 (giving up 1.1) for a balance of +0.8. On the quality of chances, Bahia look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Bahia are creating chances worth 1.8 a game but only finishing 1.3. the underlying performance is better than the results show.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Atletico-MG average 0.0 goals per game and Bahia manage 1.3. Combined that's just 1.3. We make it only 48% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip — we make it 47%.
Atletico-MG do it the hard way — only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Atletico-MG Win | @2.10 | 43.4% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 27.1% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Bahia Win | @3.40 | 29.6% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.80 | 47.3% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @1.96 | 52.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.00 | 47.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.83 | 52.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.30 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture — our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Atletico-MG the favourite with a 43.4% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Atletico-MG @ 2.10, Draw @ 3.25, Bahia @ 3.40. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Atletico-MG vs Bahia kicks off on Tuesday 21 July 2026 at 23:30 in the Brasileirão Série A.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 47.3% probability.
Our top prediction is Atletico-MG to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.