Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 44.5% | 53.5% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 40.8% | 47.6% | 7 pts under |
| Coritiba Win | 22.0% | 25.4% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Coritiba welcome Palmeiras.
Coritiba welcome Palmeiras in the Brasileirão Série A. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Coritiba will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Palmeiras travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Palmeiras edge it at 50% but a draw (28%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with. Our most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Coritiba average 0.0 goals per game and Palmeiras manage 1.7. Combined that's just 1.7. We make it only 41% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip — we make it 45%.
Coritiba do it the hard way — only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Palmeiras prefer to keep things tight (0.9 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Coritiba against this setup.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Coritiba Win | @4.00 | 22.0% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 28.2% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Palmeiras Win | @1.91 | 49.8% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.95 | 44.5% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @1.83 | 55.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.10 | 40.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.74 | 59.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.36 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @4.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.25 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture — our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Palmeiras the favourite with a 49.8% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Coritiba @ 4.00, Draw @ 3.25, Palmeiras @ 1.91. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Coritiba vs Palmeiras kicks off on Wednesday 22 July 2026 at 23:30 in the Brasileirão Série A.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 44.5% probability.
Our top prediction is Palmeiras to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.