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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 53.8% | 64.5% | 11 pts under |
| Guadalajara Chivas Win | 40.1% | 45.5% | 5 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54.8% | 58.8% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
The key duel: Toluca's attack against Guadalajara Chivas's back line.
A Liga MX fixture between Guadalajara Chivas and Toluca. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Guadalajara Chivas will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Toluca travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Guadalajara Chivas edge it at 40% but a draw (24%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
The goals side is finely balanced. We make it 55% for three or more. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 54%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Guadalajara Chivas Win | @2.20 | 40.1% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.50 | 24.4% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Toluca Win | @3.00 | 35.5% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.57 | 53.8% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @2.32 | 46.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.70 | 54.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.18 | 45.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.47 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite with a 40.1% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Guadalajara Chivas @ 2.20, Draw @ 3.50, Toluca @ 3.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca kicks off on Sunday 19 July 2026 at 02:07 in the Liga MX.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 53.8% probability.
Our top prediction is Guadalajara Chivas to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.