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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mjällby AIF Win | 51.2% | 59.9% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54.2% | 58.1% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Three points on the line and a story to write. Mjällby AIF host Västerås SK.
A Allsvenskan fixture between Mjällby AIF and Västerås SK. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Mjällby AIF will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Västerås SK travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Mjällby AIF at just 51%. With the draw at 25%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Mjällby AIF, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Both sides are prolific in front of goal. Mjällby AIF average 4.0 per game and Västerås SK chip in with 3.0. Expect an open, attacking contest.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Mjällby AIF are scoring 4.0 a game (4.0 of those at home) and Västerås SK manage 3.0 (3.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 54%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
Mjällby AIF are all-out attack: 4.0 goals a game, but they leak 4.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Västerås SK, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Västerås SK have goals in them (3.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. Neither defence inspires confidence. Both sides rarely keep clean sheets. Open, attacking football is on the cards.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Mjällby AIF Win | @1.67 | 51.2% | Sky Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.40 | 24.5% | Sky Bet |
| Match Result | Västerås SK Win | @3.90 | 24.4% | Sky Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.72 | 54.2% | Grosvenor |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.00 | 45.8% | Grosvenor |
Our model makes Mjällby AIF the favourite with a 51.2% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Mjällby AIF @ 1.67, Draw @ 3.40, Västerås SK @ 3.90. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Mjällby AIF vs Västerås SK kicks off on Friday 17 July 2026 at 18:00 in the Allsvenskan.
Our top prediction is Mjällby AIF to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.