Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 43.0% | 51.8% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42.0% | 49.0% | 7 pts under |
| Fluminense Win | 54.2% | 59.2% | 5 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
The key duel: Fluminense's attack against RB Bragantino's back line.
Fluminense (5th, 64 pts) host RB Bragantino (10th, 48 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Fluminense will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while RB Bragantino travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Fluminense at just 54%. With the draw at 26%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Fluminense, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe. Predicted scoreline: 1-0.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Fluminense's home record this season is formidable. W15 D1 L3 from 19, scoring 1.6 goals per game at home. RB Bragantino, by contrast, have struggled on the road (W5 D2 L12 from 19 away). That imbalance is hard to ignore.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Fluminense create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 0.8), leaving them +0.6 a game on the balance. RB Bragantino create 1.2 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of -0.1. The underlying numbers clearly favour Fluminense. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Fluminense are scoring 1.3 a game (1.6 of those at home) and RB Bragantino manage 1.2 (0.9 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more — we make it 42% — so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip — we make it 43%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Fluminense Win | @1.73 | 54.2% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.50 | 25.6% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | RB Bragantino Win | @4.75 | 20.2% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.95 | 43.0% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @1.80 | 57.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.05 | 42.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.78 | 58.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.28 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Fluminense the favourite with a 54.2% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Fluminense @ 1.73, Draw @ 3.50, RB Bragantino @ 4.75. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Fluminense vs RB Bragantino kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 00:00 in the Brasileirão Série A.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 43.0% probability.
Our top prediction is Fluminense to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.