When we say 75%, it happens about 75% of the time
Loads of tipsters throw around confidence numbers. We do something different: we save every pick before the match kicks off, then check whether it came true. It turns out our percentages are almost bang on, and here's the proof.
What we said vs what actually happened
Each row groups our picks by how confident we were. The green bar is what really happened. The closer it is to what we said, the more you can trust the number. Simple as that.
A few rows with only a handful of picks bounce around, that's normal with small numbers. The rows with hundreds of picks are the ones that matter, and those are almost exactly on the mark.
Why this matters to you
It's easy for a tips site to say "80% chance" and hope you don't check. If their numbers are inflated, you back things that aren't as safe as they look. Ours have been checked against 1,070 real results, and they hold up, so when you see a percentage on this site, you can take it at face value.
- We save it before kick-off. Every pick and its percentage is written down before the match starts, so we can't change our story afterwards.
- We check the real result. Win or lose, every pick is checked against what actually happened. Nothing is quietly deleted.
- We compare said vs happened. We group picks by how confident we were and see how often they came true. That's the chart above.
For the data-minded: this is a calibration check, and our Brier score is 0.190 (lower is better, 0 is perfect).
It's information, not betting advice, and nothing is guaranteed. But the numbers are open and you can check every one on the full track record. 18+ · gamble responsibly.
The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.