Match Preview · Verified Model
Sirius vs Mjallby AIF Predictions & Odds
Draw: 24.7%
@ 3.50
Prediction: Sirius to win
(51.5% probability)
Match Preview · Verified Model
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| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 51.5% | 61.7% | -10.2pp ★ |
| Sirius Win | 51.5% | 58.8% | -7.3pp |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58.1% | 60.2% | -2.1pp |
All eyes on Sirius as Mjallby AIF travel to face Sirius.
Sirius (9th, 39 pts) host Mjallby AIF (1st, 75 pts) in the Allsvenskan. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Sirius will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Mjallby AIF travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with conviction. Sirius edge it at 52% but a stalemate (25%) is just as likely. Tread carefully with your stakes. We're calling it 2-1.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Mjallby AIF are no pushovers away from home. W12 D2 L1 from 15 away trips, scoring 2.1 per game on the road. Sirius (W7 D2 L6 at home) can't afford to take this lightly. Sirius's recent xG form is even better. 2.6 xG per game in their last 5 compared to a season average of 2.3. They're creating more as the season progresses.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Sirius generate 2.3 xG per game (conceding 1.2 xGA), giving them an xG differential of +1.1. Mjallby AIF create 1.9 xG (conceding 0.9 xGA) for a differential of +0.9. The xG metrics are remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two on underlying quality. Sirius are trending upwards. 2.6 xG/game in their last 5 vs 2.3 season average. They're in an attacking purple patch.
Goals look likely here. Sirius average 1.8 per game (1.9 at home) and Mjallby AIF chip in with 1.9 (2.1 away). Defensively, Sirius concede 1.2 at home and Mjallby AIF leak 0.7 on the road. Over 2.5 sits at 58%. The numbers support it without being overwhelming. BTTS sits at 52%. It's close to a coin flip. The xG data supports the goals play. Sirius generate 2.3 xG per game and Mjallby AIF create 1.9. Combined, that's 4.1 expected goals per game from open play alone.
Sirius live by the sword. Scoring 1.8 per game but conceding 1.7. They'll come at Mjallby AIF, but there are cracks at the back that the visitors can exploit. Mjallby AIF are similarly well-balanced. 1.9 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. This has the makings of a chess match between two organised sides.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Sirius Win | @1.73 | 51.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.50 | 24.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Mjallby AIF Win | @4.40 | 23.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.62 | 51.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.15 | 48.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.67 | 58.1% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.20 | 41.9% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.48 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Sirius the favourite with a 51.5% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Sirius @ 1.73, Draw @ 3.50, Mjallby AIF @ 4.40. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Sirius vs Mjallby AIF kicks off on Friday 3 July 2026 at 18:00 in the Allsvenskan.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 51.5% probability.
Our top prediction is Sirius to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.