Match Preview · Verified Model
Daily Accas
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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalmar FF Win | 58.8% | 69.0% | -10.2pp ★ |
| Both Teams to Score | 49.0% | 58.8% | -9.8pp |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60.0% | 62.5% | -2.5pp |
Three points on the line and a story to write — Kalmar FF host Orgryte IS.
A Allsvenskan fixture between Kalmar FF and Orgryte IS. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Kalmar FF will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Orgryte IS travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickKalmar FF to win at @1.45. Model probability 59% vs implied 69% — priced at fair value — take it for stability, not for edge.
We're backing Kalmar FF at 59%. The edge is clear but not overwhelming. Consider Draw No Bet if you want insurance in your accumulator. Our most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Don't expect a goalfest. Kalmar FF average 0.0 goals per game and Orgryte IS manage 1.5. Combined that's just 1.5. Our model gives over 2.5 goals only a 60% chance. Under 2.5 is the play. BTTS sits at 49%. It's close to a coin flip.
Orgryte IS prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Kalmar FF against this setup.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Kalmar FF Win | @1.45 | 58.8% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.40 | 22.9% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Orgryte IS Win | @6.00 | 18.3% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.75 | 49.0% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @2.00 | 51.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.60 | 60.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.30 | 40.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.18 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.50 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture — our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Kalmar FF the favourite with a 58.8% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Kalmar FF @ 1.45, Draw @ 4.40, Orgryte IS @ 6.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS kicks off on Sunday 5 July 2026 at 13:00 in the Allsvenskan.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 49.0% probability.
Our top prediction is Kalmar FF to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.