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Daily Accas
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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 52.8% | 63.3% | -10.5pp ★ |
| Hammarby FF Win | 49.7% | 54.6% | -4.9pp |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55.4% | 59.5% | -4.1pp |
A test of nerve as much as quality when IF Elfsborg welcome Hammarby FF.
A Allsvenskan meeting between IF Elfsborg (8th, 40 pts) and Hammarby FF (2nd, 62 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. IF Elfsborg will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Hammarby FF travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Hammarby FF at 50%, but the draw sits at 26%. Double chance or Draw No Bet is the smart approach when the margins are this fine. Our most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
IF Elfsborg will be looking to make home advantage count (W7 D3 L5 at home). Hammarby FF's away record reads W7 D4 L4. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Hammarby FF carry a similar regression risk. 2.0 actual goals vs 1.8 xG per game. Clinical finishing has masked underlying chance-creation issues.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
IF Elfsborg generate 1.3 xG per game (conceding 1.9 xGA), giving them an xG differential of -0.6. Hammarby FF create 1.8 xG (conceding 1.1 xGA) for a differential of +0.7. By expected goals, Hammarby FF are the superior side. they generate more and concede less in terms of chance quality. Hammarby FF are also overperforming (2.0 actual vs 1.8 xG). Regression could hit both sides simultaneously.
Goals look likely here. IF Elfsborg average 1.5 per game (2.2 at home) and Hammarby FF chip in with 2.0 (1.7 away). Defensively, IF Elfsborg concede 1.8 at home and Hammarby FF leak 1.3 on the road. Over 2.5 sits at 55%. The numbers support it without being overwhelming. BTTS sits at 53%. It's close to a coin flip.
Hammarby FF will bring firepower (2.0 per game) but their defensive record (1.0 conceded) leaves them vulnerable. This could be end-to-end.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | IF Elfsborg Win | @3.60 | 24.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.40 | 26.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Hammarby FF Win | @1.91 | 49.7% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.62 | 52.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.20 | 47.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.73 | 55.4% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.12 | 44.6% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.44 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Hammarby FF the favourite with a 49.7% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: IF Elfsborg @ 3.60, Draw @ 3.40, Hammarby FF @ 1.91. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF kicks off on Sunday 5 July 2026 at 15:30 in the Allsvenskan.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 52.8% probability.
Our top prediction is Hammarby FF to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.